Data adjustments to the trade matrix
The FertRadar trade matrix starts from CEPII BACI and applies a documented set of adjustments. Each one is a row in a governed table with a public justification, its sources and a review date. Every change to the data carries a confidence level: confirmed when the adjusted figure is set from, or matches, a published figure for that flow or exporter (a producer report, an official statistic, the partner country's declarations); estimated when the anomaly is established but the corrected figure, the product kept or the true origin is a FertRadar estimate. Notes and flags change no data.
Key facts
- The trade matrix carries 539 documented adjustments: 103 confirmed and 384 estimated changes to the data, and 52 notes and flags.
- 918 flows had an implausible quantity recomputed from their declared value, removing 68.8 Mt over 1995-2024.
The adjusted figure is set from, or matches, a published figure for that flow or exporter (producer report, official statistics, partner declarations).
The anomaly is established, but the corrected figure, the product kept or the true origin is a FertRadar estimate.
Quantities or values changed to a cited figure (scaling to published company totals, recomputation from value, removal, added route, exporter reassigned).
Flows declared under the wrong product moved to the right one ("sum": added; "duplicate": the same cargo declared under two products, the larger declaration kept).
The same cargo declared under two codes of the same product (sulphur 2503 and 2802; phosphate rock ground and unground): counted once.
Implausible flows flagged and kept, or flagged before a correction.
Real events or coverage gaps explained in a note; no change to the data.
Trading hubs and trading destinations flagged on country views.
Inbound legs to trading hubs removed (traded cargo declared again by the country of delivery).
Phosphoric acid quantity basis set from the exporter's published exports by destination.
Three examples
How a correction reads: the anomaly, the published figure it is checked against, and what changes.
- correction: Russian MOP exports rescaled to Uralkali's 2017 export sales of 10.9 Mt MOP (press release on 2017 IFRS results, 3 Apr 2018). Uralkali was virtually the only Russian potash exporter at the time. Quantities and values are scaled by the same factor, so destinations and unit values are unchanged. (2017)
- correction: Moroccan DAP exports in 2024 scaled to 3.94 Mt: OCP's 2024 sales by grade (DAP 4.1 Mt) times its export share (12.2 Mt exported out of 12.7 Mt sold; annual financial report 2024). Customs data put Moroccan fertiliser exports at 16.7 Mt (+43% on 2023), against OCP's +10%. (2024)
- reclassification: Oman has no ammonium nitrate production: its nitrogen plants (Sur, Sohar, Salalah) make ammonia and urea (USGS Minerals Yearbook 2024 facilities table). Its exports nevertheless carry 0.05 to 0.2 Mt a year of "ammonium nitrate" in 2017-2023, mostly to India, China and Korea, which declare ammonia for the same cargoes in several years. Reclassified as ammonia, keeping for each route the larger of the two declarations (no summing). (2017)
Sources and notes
Official statistics and the producers' own documents only, cleaned and reconciled by FertRadar. Every figure keeps a reference to its document, and every correction to the customs data is documented one by one.
- CEPII, BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0)
The document, page and date behind each figure are listed in the Pro data files. Sources and licences
- Only the confidence level, status, public justification, evidence and review date of each adjustment are published.
- Flows keep the label of the adjustment that changed them; imputed flows keep the declared quantity next to the corrected one.