Methodology
How FertRadar builds each layer: trade matrix, demand and production of nutrients, mining capacity and prices. Every indicator has one written definition, every adjustment a public source.
Trade matrix
Customs statistics reconciled by CEPII (BACI) for the complete years; the latest year is a FertRadar estimate from the monthly customs declarations to UN Comtrade, until the annual data are published. Values exclude freight and insurance (FOB equivalent).
Bilateral flow in product terms
Unit: tonnes of product; value in thousand USD
All flows, including small ones; flows without a quantity (about 1 to 4% of flows in 2024) are listed by value only.
Bilateral flow in nutrient terms
Unit: tonnes of nutrient
As I-1.
Total exports and imports
Unit: tonnes of product and of nutrient; world rank
All countries.
Net trade balance
Unit: tonnes
All countries; by nutrient, broken down by product family so as not to mix raw materials and finished products.
Route shares
Unit: %
Routes above 1% or 10,000 t; the rest under "others".
Supplier concentration
Unit: index
Importers of at least 50,000 t of the product in the year.
Implied unit value
Unit: USD per tonne of product (or of nutrient)
Routes of at least 1,000 t; route values masked outside 0.33 to 3 times the world median of the product that year.
Year-on-year change
Unit: %
Not shown if either year is below 1,000 t.
Recent months
FertRadar calculations based on UN Comtrade data and on CEPII BACI.
Monthly trade from the monthly customs declarations to UN Comtrade, consistent with the annual series; the latest months are FertRadar estimates.
Quality rules
5 rules check every flow: implausible quantities, duplicate declarations, products declared under the wrong code, transit hubs and gaps in reporting. Their effects are listed opposite.
Publication thresholds and effects, 1995-2024
What the rules changed in the raw customs data.
- Routes shown
- above 1% of the total or 10,000 t
- Unit values
- for at least 1,000 t
- Supplier concentration
- importers of at least 50,000 t
- Country and product pages
- at least 50,000 t in 2024
- Flows imputed
- 918 (68.8 Mt removed)
- Flows corrected
- 5,269
- Flows reclassified
- 3,470
- Known anomalies flagged
- 475
- Quality alerts reviewed
- 1,219
Products and nutrient contents
Percent of the product's weight. Select a column to sort.
Demand and production of nutrients
Agricultural use and production of N, P₂O₅ and K₂O by country, 1995-2024: FAOSTAT values as reported, with graded FertRadar estimates where FAOSTAT has no value. Two layers: reported (FAOSTAT only) and best estimate (shown on the site).
UN M49 sub-regions; the Oceania sub-regions are merged. Regional and world totals are sums of the country best estimates.
Methods
17 estimation methods fill the gaps of the reported data, each with its grade and error band.
Indicators
Agricultural use
Total use N + P₂O₅ + K₂O (only when all three have a value)
Use per hectare of cropland (FAO, as published)
Use per capita (FAO, as published)
Nutrient ratio, N = 1
Growth: year-on-year and 5-year compound (never across a missing year)
Share of world use
Production
Self-sufficiency, D8 / D1
Net imports of fertilisers (trade matrix, not graded)
Import dependence, D10 / D1 (0 when a net exporter)
Mining capacity (potash, phosphate rock)
Mining capacity of potash (all potassium salts, in K₂O) and phosphate rock (marketable rock or concentrate, in P₂O₅) at the end of 2024, site by site.
Nameplate or stated annual capacity at the end of 2024, 100% of the site, as published by the producer or an authority. Construction and planned projects are listed separately and never counted. Components of a site already counted at group level are shown but not added.
Potash in K₂O (potassium chloride at 60% K₂O unless a grade is published); phosphate rock in P₂O₅ (published grade, else the USGS national average grade, else 30%).
For each country, the USGS facility capacity (Minerals Yearbook 2024) is the reference. Where it is shown to be wrong (unit labels, duplicates, production printed as capacity, idle sites), it is corrected and the correction is published; coverage = identified capacity / reference.
Calculated values and corrections
10 calculation methods, and 15 corrections to the USGS reference where it is shown to be wrong.
Prices
World Bank benchmarks (Pink Sheet and CMO historical monthly data), shown as published. Nutrient-equivalent prices are computed with standard grades. FertRadar does not publish price assessments or forecasts.
DAP
DAP (diammonium phosphate), spot, f.o.b. US Gulf
TSP
TSP (triple superphosphate), spot, import US Gulf
Urea, E. Europe
Urea (Ukraine), prill spot f.o.b. Middle East, beginning March 2022; previously, f.o.b. Black Sea
MOP
MOP (muriate of potash), Brazil CFR granular spot price from January 2020; previously, f.o.b. Vancouver
Phosphate rock
Phosphate rock, f.o.b. North Africa
Natural gas, Europe
Natural gas (Europe): from April 2015, Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF); April 2010 to March 2015, average import border price and a spot price component, including UK; June 2000 to March 2010, excluding UK
Natural gas, U.S.
Natural gas (U.S.), spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana
Sources and notes
Official statistics and the producers' own documents only, cleaned and reconciled by FertRadar. Every figure keeps a reference to its document, and every correction to the customs data is documented one by one.
- CEPII, BACI (Etalab Open Licence 2.0)
- FAO, FAOSTAT (CC BY 4.0)
- U.S. Geological Survey, USGS Minerals Yearbook (Public domain)
- World Bank, Commodity Markets (CC BY 4.0)
- United Nations Statistics Division, Standard country or area codes for statistical use
- Statistics Canada, Fertiliser statistics (Statistics Canada Open Licence)
- Eurostat, Gross nutrient balance (Eurostat reuse policy)
- CBS Statistics Netherlands, Fertiliser statistics (CC BY 4.0)
- Destatis, Fertiliser statistics (Reuse with source citation)
- ISTAT, Fertiliser distribution statistics (CC BY 4.0)
- Defra, UK soil nutrient balances (Open Government Licence)
- Company annual reports and filings, Asia-Potash International
The document, page and date behind each figure are listed in the Pro data files. Sources and licences
- No forecasts and no market commentary: FertRadar publishes data and indicators defined by formulas.